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Wednesday, October 01, 2008

First Debate

With foreign policy being the theme, Obama had to appear as if he was comfortable and knowledgeable about the subject given the expectation that foreign policy was McCain’s strongest asset. Obama more than held his own. If there was any memorable phrase from the entire evening it was the series of assertions that McCain got it wrong about why we went to war in Iraq.

A draw, therefore, was all Obama needed. Of course, having the financial crisis intrude on the planned subject matter did not help McCain. I thought McCain demonstrated knowledge himself, but his demeanor was unimpressive. The polls have shown contradictory results with a slight tightening nationally, although Obama still leads. McCain’s inability to reduce Obama’s lead significantly after the debate is encouraging.

The respected Quinnipiac University poll just released its first post-debate findings, which show Obama increasing his lead in Florida, Ohio, and Pennsylvania, compared to where he was prior to the debate. Obama now leads in those three states having crossed the magic 50% threshold: 51-43% in Florida, 50-42% in Ohio, and 54-39% in Pennsylvania.

During the debate McCain continually harped on two points– his years of experience and his role as a maverick who will take on his own party.

While Obama countered these repeated thrusts, I think he can make a better case. McCain talks about his visits to foreign countries as prime evidence of his experience. Obama needs to describe McCain’s visit to the Baghdad market and his conclusion that things were not as dangerous as the press had led us to believe. But he never mentioned that he was surrounded by 100 or so soldiers and access to the market was closely controlled.

The point about this is that the President’s job is not to travel the world on VIP trips where he is presented with what his hosts want him to see. The job is to listen to the reports from people who know the situation because they are on the ground for more than a short visit, and evaluate conflicting reports while setting strategy and making realistic judgments that are in the best interest of the US.

The maverick claim ought to be presented by talking about two John McCain’s – pre-2005 when he often opposed George Bush and flirted with John Kerry to the point of discussing running as Kerry’s VP, and post 2005 when he reversed that maverick stance by adopting George Bush policies. McCain was against the Bush tax plan before he was for it, he has voted for Bush legislation 90% of the time, and he was against regulation and now is for it.

A final consideration is that if McCain is elected you get more than McCain and Palin. The McCain administration would be staffed by people who have supported Bush and in many cases were in the Bush administration. It is going to be hard to be a maverick and a reform candidate when you are going to be relying on the same people who got us to where we are today.

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